Will the Peace Hold in Southern Sudan after the passing of Dr. John Garang?

The roots of the conflict in the Sudan goes back to the early 19th century, several decades before the advent of the Western colonialism in the Sudan; which makes it one the longest wars in the world after the Israeli- Palestine war.
Also, the war in the Southern Sudan, between the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and the National Islamic fundamentalism (NIF) in Khartoum is among Africa’s oldest and deadliest conflicts and largest in the region. More then 3 million were killed, achieving a death toll over twenty times higher than Darfur’s do date.
The NIF viewed the CPA as an opportunity to direct the international community’s attention away from their ongoing genocide in Darfur. While they have made some cosmetic changes, the NIF hasn’t fulfilled their core obligations to the CPA and don’t appear any more committed to this peace agreement than to any of the other treaties they’ve signed. In fact the NIF has put enormous obstacles in place to prevent progress on the CPA. It seems clear the NIF has no intention of sharing either power or oil revenue with the SPLA.
On the one hand it is impossible for the SPLA or the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGDA) to know if the NIF is sharing oil revenues according to the dictates of the CPA because the NIF won’t disclose what the total revenues are. It is also likely that the NIF will use oil money to manipulate voting in the upcoming referendum on separation, which will take place in six years time.
The NIF’s continued support for the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in Northern Uganda is another problem calling the success of the CPA into question. How could the LRA cross the east side of the river to west, without the logistical support of the NIF? Yei is the only source of food to the population in Juba and most of the Arab trades are not happy that food should come from Yei, because it will have negative impact on their business in Juba.
As know you the recent attacked on the convey in early September between Juba and Yei, the NIF is behind it. How could (LRA) cross the east side of the river to west, without the logistic support of the NIF? Yei is the only source of food to Juba population and most of the Arab trades are not happy that the food should come from Yei, because it will have negative impact on their business in Juba.
The United Nation Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), could have prevented the recent attack in Yei-Juba road, but the 700 UNMIS peacekeeping troops are based only in Juba unarmed and mostly allied with Khartoum’s regimes and who have large investments in the Sudanese oil sector. Most of the UNMIS peacekeeping troops from Australia, Russia and other European countries are enjoying themselves in Khartoum’s expensive hotels playing cards and smoking cigars instead of patrolling the North / South border.
Besides this, the mandate of United Nation Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) is very weak. They have no power to arrest treaty violators, detain suspects or fight back. This is a repeat of the situation in Darfur and if such attacks continue UNMIS will be as impotent as the AU in that region.
Furthermore, the NIF has not disclosed the number of troops it still has in Southern Sudan to the UNMIS, either in Juba or other part of Southern Sudan.
Added to this hostile elements are the 500,000 Janjaweed with their horses, women and children that the NIF relocated from Darfur to Rokon County, about 60 miles south west of Juba. Their presence tends to indicate that the NIF intends to unleash a campaign of atrocities on Rokon County similar to the one they have in Darfur.
Another tactic the NIF is using to destabilize South Sudan is the transfer of large numbers of Egyptian Arabs to that region. This is in keeping with their policy of Arabizing Sudan and the implementation of this policy is what leads to the violence in Darfur.
The NIF encourages immigration from Egypt by offering these migrants the following rights: freedom of entry to Sudan without visas; residence permits are provided free of cost; freedom of movement within the whole of Sudan; the ability to own land upon arrival; the right to vote as soon as they settle in Sudan.
All of this is going on while tens of thousands of Sudanese languish in Egypt in deplorable conditions with none of the aforementioned privileges. Nineteen thousand are registered with the UNHCR, but there are many more Sudanese stranded in Egypt, unable to return to Sudan.
The strategy is obvious; the Arabs are being relocated in the south while African Southerners are being kept from returning in an attempt to shift the demographic to favour Khartoum when the vote for independence comes in 2011.
The abuse of South Sudanese is not restricted to Egypt. There are countless Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) living in Khartoum or in the IDP camps around it such as Hagi Yousif , Kalakata and Al-Sal’ama Camp in Jebel.
Since the death of Garang the dumping of five to ten bodies of South Sudanese has become a daily occurrence. Those who had managed to scrape together enough to escape the IDP camps and eke out a living in Khartoum are being driven from their homes once again by landlords who are increasing rents by as much as 100%. Whole families are being driven back into the camps straining what resources are available there.
In another effort to keep Southerners from returning home the NIF has increased air fare from Khartoum to Juba from $100, to $200.
These are just a few of the tactics implemented by the NIF to insure the CPA fails. It is up to the international community to monitor these violations and, more importantly, insure there are very real and very negative consequences for such abuse. Only through this type of foreign intervention will the NIF be made to respect their obligations under the CPA and implement it fully without delay.

By Justin Laku©